Agreeing on a name may be off the opposition’s ‘To-Do’ list, but if it wants to defeat Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s BJP in next year’s national election after two back-to-back election debacles, it needs to dramatically shore up its strike rate, data from the 2019 polls show.
More than two dozen opposition parties announced the formation of a new alliance on Tuesday, named “INDIA,” to challenge the BJP in the 2024 parliamentary elections. But their track record indicates they have considerable ground to cover if they hope to present a significant challenge.
In 2019, when PM Modi was last re-elected, the strike rate, or winning rate, of the BJP and the Congress, the main opposition party, had a stark difference. In the direct contest between the two parties, the BJP boasted a formidable strike rate of 92.1 per cent, whereas the Congress party’s strike rate languished at 7.9 per cent.
Out of approximately 190 out of 543 seats where there was a direct contest between Congress and BJP, the ruling party claimed a striking 175, leaving only 15 seats for the Congress. To pose a credible challenge to the BJP in 2024, Congress will need to significantly improve upon this figure.
Meanwhile, non-Congress parties exhibited a higher strike rate of 30.8 per cent against the BJP’s 69.2 per cent in the 2019 elections.
However, that the opposition alliance needs the Congress was demonstrated by the fact that when facing non-BJP parties, the grand-old party performed significantly better with a strike rate of 52.1 per cent compared to the non-BJP parties’ 47.9 per cent.
The opposition will need to significantly increase its strike rate against the BJP to over 50 per cent if it hopes to make a meaningful impact in the 2024 elections.
The opposition’s plan to unify against the BJP will come with its share of challenges. PM Modi has criticised the members of the alliance as “opportunists” and “corrupt” individuals attempting to defame India globally, and now merely trying to save their political careers.
PM Modi and the BJP have also worked to revitalise the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), gathering 38 parties, many of them with limited regional influence, as they prepare for the upcoming electoral battle.
“We unite the people of India, they divide the people of India,” PM Modi stated during a show of strength on Tuesday, directly challenging the opposition’s unification efforts.
